Low Job Creation Correlates to Low Home Loan Rates

Report from Stuart Brown, Valley Mortgage Group

“You’re a firework.” Katy Perry. And while the fireworks might have been booming during last weeks July 4th holiday, the Labor Departments Jobs Report for June fizzled out. Read on for details and what they mean for home loan rates.

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 80,000 jobs created in June, with 84,000 private job gains offsetting 4,000 government job losses. Revisions to previously reported April and May numbers resulted in an additional 1,000 jobs lost. For the first quarter of 2012, the US economy put on an average of 225,000 Jobs. But in the second quarter, the economy averaged just 75,000 job creations!

In addition, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 8.2% and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) was unchanged at 63.8, remaining at a 31-year low. This is a real headwind to the US economy as we need more people “participating” or working relative to those who are not. And that is simply not going to happen as long as the US economy continues to muddle along with 2% GDP growth.

The real question to ask is: Was the report ugly enough to guarantee another round of Bond buying, known as Quantitative Easing or QE3? It’s important to note that additional hints of QE3 could initially push Stock prices higher, shifting cash out of the Bond trade and hurting home loan rates (which are tied to Mortgage Bonds) in the process. This is an important news story to watch in the weeks ahead!

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.Stuart BrownSr. Loan Officer Market ManagerValley Mortgage GroupPhone: (503) 538-1072Fax: 5035381072stuart@wvbk.comwvbk.com/stuartbrown